名人—宽带资本董事长田溯宁演讲稿实录

　　名人—宽带资本董事长田溯宁演讲稿实录

　　文章摘要：2009中国互联网大会的重要组成部分——“网络技术创新应用论坛暨2009云计算产业峰会”在北京国际会议中心举行。主题为“解读云计算中的沸点与精彩”。宽带资本董事长田溯宁出席峰会，并做了精彩演讲：

　　田溯宁：四年之前我离开网通创立宽带资本，我和张明正先生在洛杉矶就讨论，我说将来会不会有一些变革，技术的机会，像互联网或者是PC一样，能给我们带来非常多的投资和创业的机会。因为在PC革命的时候，整个亚洲超过十亿美元的软件公司，在亚洲只有趋势科技一家，其他的基本都是以美国公司为主。互联网我们的参与过程中，中国的企业在应用方面非常重要，核心的技术基本是来源于硅谷，来源于西方。四年之前我们讨论了一些，但是还是看得不是特别清楚。在一年前左右的时候，张明正和我见到一起的时候，我们异口同声地说，可能云计算是我们面临的一个新的机会，而且在这样一个产业变革中能够诞生出新一代的企业家，也许在这个变革中，亚洲的企业，中国的企业能有机会，不仅在应用上领先，而且在技术上也能够和西方同步。在这样一个思想指导下，作为一个投资者，就在讨论怎么了解和研究云计算的价值链，能够通过投资的角度支持第一流的企业家，能够推动参与这样一个技术的变化，使在这样一个技术变革中能够诞生新一代的企业，诞生新一代的商业模式。这个探索刚刚开始所以今天我跟大家交流一下。

　　刚才林先生已经讲了很多关于云计算，我自己的理解，实际上云计算非常像我们过去学习的哲学叫“否定之否定”。我们从计算机发展的历史来说，最早期是组机时代，然后开始了PC革命，然后是互联网。现在随着宽带能力的不断加强，带宽、软件的虚拟化，我们看到信息的处理又集中到一个云上。看起来是又回到了三十年前，但是实际上否定之否定，我们得到了更高的上升。我用一个例子跟大家分享，如果说水是人类文明最重要的资源。原始社会我们是怎么得到水，我们是在湖泊里把水拿过来，或者是人居住在水旁边的地方。这个湖泊就是主机。人类进步到第二步，到了农村，每一家有个水井，这是个人计算机时代。但是个人有个水井，面临什么挑战呢？资源不能共用，而且成本非常高。我们到城市里以后，我们需要水的时候就打开水龙头，水的质量可以保证，水随处可在，非常便宜。第三个时代就是云，我们到了城市里，我们能够把计算资源和存储资源集中起来，一切技术革命看起来很复杂，但是实际上都是很符合人类对低成本和方便的追求。所以，我认为，跟大家分享的云计算的演化应该有这么几个层次。

　　从投资的角度，现在云计算从几个角度来看啊。第一个是基础设施，包括什么，核心可能是数据中心，或者是宽带的网络。第二个是，各种信息需要存储，或者是系统。再上面是看到平台，或者是应用，包括虚拟化的软件，有服务，最终是用户。六个层次，过去一年里，我和我的团队进行了分类。刚才林先生讲云计算最核心的特征就是一切变为服务，基础设施可以变为服务。我在网通的时候，当时我们建立了亚洲最大的数据中心，自己建，自己拥有。将来在云的情况下，数据中心能不能本身成为一个服务，平台和基础设施可以被租用，平台也变成服务，像我们今天的DOS，Windows。第三个，我们今天看到一些很成功的服务企业，把软件成为一种服务，像Google，或者电信公司的短信，某种意义上理解就是云的一种服务。

　　如果我们比喻云计算到中国的时间，也是一个很有意思的比喻。计算机进入中国的时候还是在八十年代初期，刚刚改革开放，九十年代初期，互联网进入中国的时候，我们相关的基础设施刚刚开始。我早期参与互联网的建设过程中，93、94年的时候，中国互联网用户不超过几万人，互联网知识非常贫乏。而且当时很多人怀疑互联网在中国能不能被接受，要不要建立一个内联网。今天随着改革开放的发展，我们今天可以开云计算的大会，已经有云计算的专家组。更重要的是，这个时候中国大陆已经有了世界上最大的互联网用户群，最大的手机用户群，最大的宽带用户群。我们能不能把用户变成云计算的参与者，规划着和应用者。

　　从各种角度来看，基于一种网络服务模式的兴起，都创造一种新的机会。在互联网角度来说，从应用角度，网络游戏是中国非常独特的应用模式。宽带网络游戏的模式，在美国我们没有看到，甚至在日本都没有看到。

　　另外，我们说云计算，我们经常谈跨越式发展，我们怎么后来居上。云计算的能力，确实可以给中国一个快速发展的机会。在传统的计算领域里，我们基本定义了个人计算机的时代，所有的操作系统几乎都是在Windows联盟下，在互联网的时候，当时我印象很深，我们给中国电信做163网的时候，还讨论能不能开一个中文浏览器。在云计算的时代，如果在这种环境下，还需不需要Windows额的操作系统，因为大部分的计算能力在中央，如果计算环境以数据中心为核心的话，今天的服务器的结构，今天的交换机的结构，是不是还用今天IPM，戴尔的结构之下呢，还是全新的考虑。前一段时间我和威盛电子的老总谈，他跟我讲目前云计算的环境，他才发现，CPO的处理能力不需要那么多跟计算有关。无论是CPO，在交换，在软件的操作系统方面，我相信，如果我们有很大的准备，有这种想象力和下决心的投资的话，这种产业变革的机会，应该给中国的信息产业有一个跳跃式发展的可能。能不能抓住机遇，取决于我们有没有一流的企业家，能不能有优秀的投资者，能不能有优秀的投资环境。

　　对未来的预测永远很难说清楚，也许未来两三年是市场引入阶段，在2010年到2013年是成长期，逐渐变成成熟期。至少在互联网的历史中这种划分是科学的，我们每次预测未来，最后的结果都是我们预测的胆子太小了。我记得98年的时候，那时候吴部长领着我们做移动通信的预测，那个时候预测就几千万的手机，这个数字不仅是错了。

　　我们看到从投资角度来看，一场大的变革来临之前，我们说春江水暖鸭先知，这个鸭子是提供工具的。我前几个月在硅谷的时候，看到基于云计算的企业有几十家，大部分是芯片层面，系统层面，包括服务器层面，我们看到上市的企业和云相关的已经有七家企业，这个确实是风起云涌的时刻。第一批的推动者往往是技术的提供者，就像淘金时代，提供牛仔裤，提供住的，提供工具的，往往是第一批的受益者。

　　我认为，在一个新的技术变革中，你是等不到的，你等就错过了机会。在云计算的投资环境中，我们要和企业家共同创造，看到这个技术之后，共同和企业家消化这个技术，通过投资使这个技术发展起来。所以在云计算的投资，对于宽带资本来讲，我们不是等待、寻找这样一个机会，而是我们积极要孕育、创造、发展这样一个机会。只有这样我们才能在最短的时间里占领这个技术的最高点。所以投资云计算一个非常重要的哲学不是等待，而是积极地参与。

　　在四个领域里，我们认为都有非常好的投资机会，基础设施，在软件应用，硬件，云技术供应商。作为一个创业者，和企业管理者，到今天作为一个投资者，我觉得一个非常重要的使命。作为投资者给资本得到回报是非常必要的。但是应该要做一个有理想的投资者，有责任心的一个投资者。他的理想和责任是什么？就是应该在未来十年和十五年里，通过投资能够在中国和亚洲诞生出第一流的科技企业。我们也许在十年十五年之后，我们再回头看，在软件领域里全亚洲只有张明正先生一个趋势科技超过十亿美元的公司。而是诞生数批亚洲的微软、思科这样的企业。只有这样我们才能参与这个世界技术的创新，为整个技术创新，我们不仅仅是用，而成为这个技术的参与者也贡献给人类对技术的不断追求。希望有机会我们共同有机会参与这样一个事业，看准这样一个机会，我们共同努力，抓住这样一个时机，抓住这样一个风起云涌的时代，谢谢！

　　Celebrity - Broadband capital President Tian Suning speech record

　　Abstract: Congress of 2009 China Internet -- the important part of" Network Technology Innovation Application Forum 2009 cloud computing industry summit" held at the Beijing International Conference center. The theme of " interpretation of cloud computing in boiling point and wonderful". Broadband capital President Tian Suning to attend the summit, and made a wonderful speech:

　　Tian Suning: four years ago I left Netcom broadband capital creation, I and Zhang Ming in Losangeles is discussed, I said that in the future will have some changes, technology, like the Internet or PC, can give us a lot of investment and business opportunity. Because the PC revolution time, the whole of Asia for more than $one billion software company, in Asia only trend science and technology, the other are fundamental to the American companies. The Internet we are in the process, China 's enterprises in the application is very important, the core technology is basically derived from Silicon Valley, from the west. Four years ago, we discussed some, but still couldn't see very clearly. Around a year ago when, Zhang Ming and I meet together, we speak with that may cloud computing, we are facing a new opportunity, and in such an industry reform to create a new generation of entrepreneurs, perhaps in the change, the Asian business, China the enterprise can have the opportunity, not only in the application of leading, but also technically able and Western synchronization. In such a thought, as an investor, discusses how to understand and study of cloud computing in the value chain, through the angle of investment support first-class entrepreneur, to promote participation in such a technical change, so that in such a technology to change to the birth of a new generation of enterprise, was born a new generation of business model. This exploration has just begun I to exchange with you.

　　Just now, Mr. Lin has said a lot about cloud computing, my own understanding, in fact the cloud very like we used to study philosophy is called" the negation of negation". From the history of computer development, most early is a group of machine era, and then began the PC revolution, then is the internet. Now, with broadband capacity has been strengthened, bandwidth, software virtualization, we see the information processing and concentrated into a cloud. Look back thirty years ago, but in fact the negation of negation, we get a higher rise. I use an example to share with you, if the water is most important resources of human civilization. In primitive society, how we have water, we are in the lake water to take over, or people living near the water. The lake is host. Human progress into the second step, to the countryside, every family has a well, this is the personal computer era. But man has a well, face what challenges? Resources can not be shared, and the cost is very high. We went to the city, we need water when you turn on the tap, the water quality can be guaranteed, water everywhere can be in, very cheap. Third times is cloud, we arrived in the city, we can put our computational resources and storage resources together, all the technology revolution looks very complicated, but are in fact very consistent with the human pursuit of low cost and convenient. So, I think, to share with you the cloud computing evolution there should be several levels.

　　From the angle of investment, now cloud computing from several points of view. The first is the infrastructure, including what, the core may be a data center, or broadband network. Second, all kinds of information needs to be stored, or system. It is again saw platform, or applications, including virtualization software, service, the final user. Six levels, in the past year, my team and I are classified. Now Mr. Lin about cloud computing the core characteristic is everything into services, infrastructure can turn into service. I was Netcom's time, when we build the Asia's biggest data center, build, own. The future in the cloud conditions, data center can itself become a service, platform and infrastructure can be rented, platform has become a service, like today's DOS, Windows. In third, we see today, some very successful service enterprises, the software as a service, like Google, or telegraphic messages, a sense of understanding is a kind of service of cloud.

　　If we describe cloud computing to China of the time, is also an interesting analogy. The computer when entering China in the early eighty's, just reform and opening up, the early ninety's, the Internet when entering China, we related infrastructure is just beginning. I participate in the early Internet construction process, 93, 94 years time, Chinese Internet users are more than tens of thousands of people, knowledge of the Internet is very poor. And at that time many people doubt the Internet in China can be accepted, otherwise should build an intranet. Today, with the development of reform and opening, we can open Cloud Computing Cloud Computing Conference, has a group of experts. More importantly, this time in China has been the world's largest Internet user group, the largest mobile phone user group, the largest broadband user group. We can turn the user into cloud computing participants, planning and application.

　　From a variety of perspectives, based on a network service mode arisen, create a new opportunity. In Internet terms, from the application point of view, the network game of China is very unique application mode. Broadband network game model in the United States, we have seen, even in Japan do not see.

　　In addition, we say that the cloud computing, we often talk to span type develops, how do we catch up from behind. Cloud computing ability, can give China a rapid development opportunities. In the traditional calculation domain, we define the personal computer era, all of the operating system are almost all in the Windows alliance, in the Internet time, at that time I was very impressed, we give China Telecom 163 net when, also discuss can open a Chinese browser. In cloud computing era, if in this environment, still need not to need the Windows amount of the operating system, because most of the computational ability in the center, if the computing environment in data center is the core of it, today's server structure, today's switch structure, is it right? With IPM today, Dell 's structure., or new consideration. Some time ago I and via electronic manager talks, he told me the current cloud computing environment, he discovered, the processing power of the CPO need not so much with the calculation. Whether it is CPO, in exchange, the software of the operating system, I believe, if we have a great preparation, the imagination and the determination of investment, the industry reform opportunity, should be to China 's information industry has a leaping development of may. Can seize opportunity, depends on whether we have a first-class entrepreneur, can have good investors, can have excellent investment environment.

　　Predicting the future is always difficult to say clearly, perhaps in the future two or three years is the market introduction phase, from 2010 to 2013 is long-term, gradually become mature period. At least in the history of the Internet in this division is scientific, every time we predict the future, the final result is our predictions are too timid. I remember 98 years when, at that time Minister Wu led us to do mobile prediction, the prediction of millions of mobile phone, this figure is not only wrong.

　　We see from the angle of investment, a big change before, we say that the river becomes warm in spring duck prophet, the duck is to provide tools. My first several months in the valley of the time, see cloud based enterprise has a few, mostly chip level, system level, including the server level, we see the listing of enterprises and cloud related has seven enterprises, this is indeed be raging like a storm. The first group of promoters often is a provider of technology, like the gold rush era, with jeans, to provide live, provide the tools, is often the first batch of beneficiaries.

　　I think, in a new technology to change, you are not to, you just missed the opportunity. In cloud computing environment of investment, we should and entrepreneurs together to create, see this technology, common and entrepreneur digest this technology, through investment in the technological development. So in the cloud computing for broadband capital investment, speaking, we are not waiting, looking for such an opportunity, but we are actively to breed, development, to create such a chance. Only in this way can we in the shortest possible time occupied by this technique with the highest point. So investing in cloud computing is a very important philosophy instead of waiting, but is actively involved in the.

　　In four areas, we think there is a very good investment opportunities, infrastructure, in software, hardware, cloud providers. As an entrepreneur, and managers of enterprises, to today as an investor, I feel a very important mission. As investors return to capital is very necessary. But should be an ideal investors, has the sense of responsibility is one of the investors. His ideals and responsibilities be? It should be in the next ten years and fifteen years, through the investment in China and Asia born out of the first-class enterprise of science and technology. We may in the ten years after fifteen years, we look back again, in the software field in Asia only Zhang Ming, a tendency of more than $one billion in the company of science and technology. But the birth of several batches of Asian Microsoft, Cisco such enterprise. Only in this way can we participate in the world of technology innovation, the technology innovation, we not only use, and become the technology also contribute to human the constant pursuit of technology. We hope to have the opportunity to have the opportunity to participate in such an undertaking, saw an opportunity, our common efforts, seize this opportunity, seize this one be raging like a storm time, thank you! 

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