罗纳德·麦金农—美国斯坦福大学教授演讲

　　罗纳德·麦金农—美国斯坦福大学教授演讲

　　文章摘要：以“国际货币体系的演变和人民币的角色”为主题的陆家嘴论坛会议上，美国斯坦福大学经济学系教授William D. Eberie讲座教授罗纳德·麦金农出席并作演讲。以下是他的演讲实录内容：

　　这个话题很广泛，之前我们主要的话题是国际货币体系的演变和人民币的角色。现在很多的讨论来自于周小川行长3月份说要推动G20来提高国际货币基金组织的贷款能力，增加2500亿SDR特别提款权。我认为可能SDR并不能承担这么重要的角色。因为从历史上面来看，70年代末以来，每一个人对于美元的标准都不是满意，这和周小川行长一样，我们每个人都在说需要另外一种储备货币。周小川就谈到了特别提款权所承载的角色。

　　国际货币基金组织没有一个独立的权利来确定SDR潜在货币的购买力，无法确定每个国家的购买力。所以资产负债情况比较好的，国际收支情况比较好的国家，就不大愿意接受这样一个建议。但是现在我的观点不太一样，我觉得2500亿SDR可以作为一个救火资金，让国际货币基金组织如果增加其贷款能力，可能只是第一步。我觉得单一的一个中央银行没有办法解决这样的问题。

　　中国在这种情况下该如何来应对？首先就是要考虑中国的汇率，我们有一些人可能还记得在90年代早期的时候，93年到96年之间，中国出现了很严重的通胀，但它非常成功的稳定了这一通胀。一方面要考虑经常项目人民币可兑换，然后采用了固汇制，95年开始人民币对美元是8.28，一直维系了十年，这是非常成功的举措，使中国的工资还有实体经济有了快速增长，而且价格比较稳定，周期性的波动也降到了最低。美国经济学家、还有政治家开始强调中国开始操纵其货币，旨在获得贸易顺差，他们对中国施加压力，要求人民币升值。我觉得这可能又要再次兴起。但是如果你升值可以降低顺差的话，其实并不一定是这样的。要求一个国家的货币升值并不一定就会减少顺差，而且升值以后会带来一种混乱，并不像很多人想象那样，只要升值就会减少顺差。所以周小川他也考虑到美国施加的压力，中国官员做出了这样的反映，就是要用一个超主权的储备货币，在2005年的7月开始，中国人民币开始缓慢升值，一开始2.5%，过去三年看到人民币以可预期的方式升值，这就带来了货币体系的混乱，没有一个金融公司或者个人想要持有美元资产，因为他们知道这样的每年肯定亏损6%到7%。私营资本都不愿意持有美元，还有热线涌入中国。

　　其实这种聪明、合理的投资者并不一定都是非常理性的。我们看到很多热钱都涌入了中国。央行看到人民币单边升值必须进行大幅干预，不得不买入美元，这样造成大量外汇储备，然后又不得不冻结这些货币，发了很多债券，然后又提高中国商业银行储备金率。到2008年的6月，外汇储备已经到达两万亿美元，中国的通胀也开始攀升，由于中国冻结货币的措施不是很成功，这对于美国来说，也是一个灾难。而且在这一进程当中贸易顺差仍然在攀升，而不是减少，过去三年当中还是看到这一迹象的。

　　去年夏天我们来到第三个阶段，很奇怪，美元在外汇市场上面均大幅升值，对于英镑、法郎、欧元、加拿大元都升值，让所有人感到非常惊讶。在7月份的时候，中国的央行就抓住了这一机会，停止升值，停止对美元的升值，停止每年7%到8%的升值。当时是6.83，人民币对美元，现在和它还是非常相近的，现在热钱也不再涌入，甚至有一些私营资本流出中国。因为中国放了很多贸易信贷，现在又有很多私营资本流入国外，外汇储备也停止攀升，中央银行可以在国内投放更多的信贷，因为他们降低了商业银行的储备金率，大幅的降低了储备金率。所以我们看到了信用的扩张。其实这是世界唯一一个国家看到银行信贷的扩张，对于中国经济和世界经济都意义非凡，因为中国出口大幅的降低，我觉得这比固汇制更好，这本身听起来不是很好，我觉得用稳定制比较好，用固汇制有一点贬义。

　　在不确定的将来没有人可以预计将来会怎么样，但是随着整个世界信任度衰退，而且是严重的衰退，有很严重的趋势，美元继续贬值，有这样的趋势。这样的情况下如果两大经济体，中国和美国，两个很大的经济体，他们把汇率固定，我觉得这就像一个锚一样，可以使经济稳定，遏制了其他国家相应贬值的步伐。哦，现在英国已经贬值了，但不管怎么样我们可以看看，如果锚定了汇率，看可否促进出口增长。这个6.8，我觉得可以说是有利于出口的。

　　还有一个，就是中国现在的外汇储备还是有两万亿美金。如果让美元不断的贬值，对中国国民财富也不是一个好消息吧。所以保持一个相对稳定的汇率还是很有必要的。刚刚一位已经谈到了人民币国际化会有什么样的影响。我觉得如果是循序渐进的话，如果让人民币对美元相对稳定，采取循序渐进，会更好。想想日本人用了15年才让日元国际化，试图让日元国际化，但失败了，现在比15年前在这个当中的比例更小。因为现在没有什么正常的人，日元碰到巨大挑战，没有什么人用日元来借钱。如果我们可以有一个固汇制的话，可以让人民币有一个风险的上限，然后在这一进程中，我们也可以让其他国家的货币相信人民币不会大幅的升值，中国又可以以人民币贷更多款出去，这样减少国际货币错配，货币和经济的错配。只要中国人民银行不来进行干涉，而让市场进行这种调节，我觉得那些人民币债务的持有人就会继续的持有这种人民币。

　　我想下面的问题还是问我们其他的演讲嘉宾吧。其实日本人就受到了这样问题的挑战。搞国际化确实有一点优势，但同时应当让这个汇率趋于稳定。主席，是不是可以这样做一个后续的讨论。贸易顺差又怎么样，你可以有比较好的、比较稳定的货币制度，但是你再怎么去操纵汇率都无法解决贸易顺差的问题。所以就要进入到第二个阶段，这个内容是大家比较熟悉的，中国必须减少储蓄和投资之间的差距。美国也有问题，储蓄不足，也就是说要两个方面都来做调整，中国要少储蓄多投资，美国要多储蓄少花钱。

　　Ronald Mackinnon - American professor of Stanford University lecture

　　Abstract:" the evolution of the international monetary system and the role of Renminbi" as the theme of the Lujiazui forum, the United States of America Stanford University Department of economics professor William D . Eberie professor Ronald Mackinnon attended the meeting and make a speech. The following is his record of the speech content:

　　This topic is very wide, before our main topic is the evolution of the international monetary system and the role of renminbi. Now a lot of discussion from Zhou Xiaochuan, said in 3 to promote G20 to improve the International Monetary Fund lending capacity, increase 250000000000 SDR sdr. I think maybe SDR are unable to undertake such an important role. Because the history above, since 70 time end, each individual for the U.S. standards are not satisfied, the governor and Zhou Xiaochuan, every one of us is said to another reserve currency. Zhou Xiaochuan talked about the SDR bearing characters.

　　The International Monetary Fund does not have an independent right to determine SDR potential purchasing power of money, cannot be determined for each country's purchasing power. So the balance situation is good, international balance of payments situation better country, is not willing to accept such a proposal. But now my point of view is not the same, I think the 250000000000 SDR can be used as a fire fighting fund, let the international monetary fund if increased their lending capacity, may be just the first step. I feel a single central banks have no way to solve this problem.

　　China in this case how to deal with? First is to consider China 's exchange rate, we have some people may remember in the early 90's when, 93 years to 96 years, China appeared very serious inflation, but it was very successful and stable the inflation. A consideration about RMB convertibility, and then uses a fixed system, 95 years of the start of the RMB against the U.S. dollar is 8.28, have been maintained for ten years, this is a very successful action, make China's wages and the real economy has a rapid growth, and the price is relatively stable, periodic fluctuations of the lowest. American economist and politician, began to emphasize China began manipulating its currency, to obtain favorable balance of trade, they put pressure on China to revalue the renminbi. I think it will rise again. But if you appreciation can reduce surplus, in fact is not necessarily so. Requirements of a country's currency appreciation will not necessarily reduce the surplus, and appreciation will bring a kind of confusion, as many people imagine, as long as the appreciation will reduce the surplus. So Zhou Xiaochuan he also takes into account the United States pressure, Chinese officials to make such a reflection, is to use a super-sovereign reserve currency, in 2005 July, China began to slow the appreciation of RMB, the beginning of the 2.5%, over the past three years in a predictable way to see the renminbi appreciation, which will result in a monetary system in the confusion, not a financial company or individual to hold dollar assets, because they know that the loss of 6% to 7% every year certainly. Private capital are reluctant to hold dollars into Chinese, and hotline.

　　In fact, this smart, rational investors are not necessarily very rational. We see a lot of hot money was poured into china. Central banks see the renminbi unilateral revaluation must be substantially intervention, had to buy dollars, this caused a large number of foreign exchange reserve, and then have to freeze the money, made a lot of bonds, and then improve the Chinese commercial bank reserve ratio. By 2008 June, foreign exchange reserves had reached $two trillion, inflation in China have begun to rise, China frozen monetary measures are not very successful, this to the United States, is also a disaster. But in the process of trade surplus still on the rise, rather than reducing, the past three years still see the signs.

　　Last summer we come to the third stage, very strange, in the dollar market above all to rise sharply, to sterling, euro, Canadian dollar, franc revaluation, let all people feel very surprised. In 7 months, China 's central bank will seize this opportunity, to stop the appreciation appreciation against the dollar, stop, stop every 7% to 8% rise. 6.83 at the time, the renminbi to us dollar, now and it is very similar to the hot money influx, now no longer, and even have some private capital out of china. Because the Chinese put a lot of trade credit, now there are many private capital inflows of foreign exchange reserves, also stopped rising, the central bank can in the domestic launch more credit, because they reduce the bank reserve ratio, substantially reduced the reserve ratio. So we saw an expansion of credit. In fact, this is only one in the world countries to see the bank credit expansion, for the Chinese economy and the world economy have extraordinary significance, since China's exports substantially lower, I think this is better than fixed exchange-rate system, this walkman is not very good, I think using stable system is quite good, use fixed exchange-rate system a bit derogatory.

　　In the uncertain future nobody can predict what will happen in future, but with the whole world trust degree decline, but is a severe recession, there is a serious trend, the dollar continues to devalue, such a trend. Under such circumstances, if the two major economies, China and the United States, two big economy, they put the exchange rate is fixed, I think this is like an anchor, can make economic stability, containment of the other state corresponding to the pace of depreciation. Oh, now in the UK has been devalued, but no matter how we can have a look, if the anchor currency, see the possibility to promote export growth. The 6.8, I feel can be said to be conducive to exports.

　　There is also a Chinese, is now foreign exchange reserves are $two trillion. If the dollar continues to devalue, the China national wealth is not a good news. So keeping a relatively stable exchange rate is still very necessary. Just one has talked about the internationalization of the RMB will have what kind of influence. I think if it is gradual, if the RMB against the U.S. dollar is relatively stable, take step by step, will be better. Think about the Japanese took 15 years to make the internationalization of Japanese yen, trying to make the internationalization of Japanese yen, but failed, now more than 15 years ago in this ratio is smaller. Because there are no normal person, yen encounter enormous challenge, no one to borrow in yen. If we can have a fixed exchange rate system it can let the yuan, there is a risk that the cap, and then in this process, we can also make other countries believe that the RMB will not substantially appreciation, China can be in yuan to borrow more out, thus reducing the international currency mismatch, monetary and economic mismatch. As long as the people's Bank of China not to interfere, and let the market for this adjustment, I think the renminbi debt holders will continue to hold the renminbi.

　　I think the following questions or ask our other speakers. In fact, the Japanese had been such a challenge. Engage in International did have a little advantage, but at the same time, should let the exchange rate stability. Chairman, is it right? Can do a follow-up discussion. Trade surplus and how, you can have a better, more stable monetary system, but you again how to manipulate the exchange rate cannot solve the problem of trade surplus. So we entered into the second stage, the content is more familiar, China must reduce the gap between saving and investment. The United States also have problems, inadequate savings, that is to say, two aspects are to do the adjustment, China should save less investment, the United States will less and save more money.