诺贝尔经济学奖得主詹姆斯·莫里斯演讲
文章摘要：2005中国经济高峰会作为第八届科博会的专项活动之一，主题为“2005中国改革之年：金融开放、公司治理与可持续发展”，大会的各个论坛从宏观和微观两个角度对2005中国经济焦点问题进行精彩讨论。 以下是诺贝尔经济学奖得主詹姆斯·莫里斯演讲：
今天上午我也发言了，但是是关于经济增长的问题。我不知道我现在还想说些什么，我还是想讲一讲过去和将来一些关系，尤其是将来经济的发展。我不知道发展的经济增长率能不能持续地进行下去是一个很好的议题。那么对于经济的增长率继续保持有很多阻碍的因素，有一个在经济方面这种高的存款率。有很多的问题，比如说在资产出口和资产进口方面的问题，资产的贸易能不能达到一个平衡，对于中国的经济发展，也是非常重要的。
对于资产的管理，对于经济的发展也是非常重要的。那么对于一个国家产业的发展也是相当重要的。
为什么有一些人觉得现在看似不是问题的问题，在将来可能会成为阻碍中国发展的问题呢？可以说，现在与二十年以前的中国相比，中国的存款率是相当高了。有可能一方面是由于人们觉得，把钱拿出来消费不是一件很好的选择，倒不如把钱存在银行里更为保险。但是，从目前的角度来看，人们这样的想法是符合他们自己逻辑的。如果说有一天人们觉得没有必要再去存钱了，在消费的结构上面就会出现一个很大的改变或者是180度的大转变，所以，我觉得人民在消费观念以及是否存钱的观念他们对于未来预测的判断，如果未来对于他们不确定的话，他们会选择去存钱，未来是很稳定的话，他们会选择去消费。但是，个人的这种行为对于国家的资本增长和资本的发展有着长远的意义的。
中国的经济，我们知道中国有很多的坏帐或者呆帐或者不良资产，中国银行管理部门当中也有很多的漏洞。也许这些呆帐产生的原因是有一些故意不去还这笔钱，不去还贷而造成的呆坏帐的现象。所以许多的国有企业，由于政策的保护，没有能够在经济的发展当中扮演起应有的角色，反而造成一个麻烦的制造者。所以在长期来看，中国的国有企业似乎在企业的利润盈利上面表现是非常差的，这也是导致中国有着呆坏帐或者不良资产的重要原因。我们可以看到，现在很多的国有的企业当中，都有不良的资产，对于他们来讲，他们也不太愿意去解决这个不良资产的问题，也就是说态度不是很积极的。导致的后果是什么呢？可能他们会被股权会被出售、解体。到目前为止，这个问题可能看起来还不是特别地重要，但是我相信将来这个问题会变得越来越严重。
在谈到这些事情我会想到韩国，韩国社会的接待率相对来说是比较低，我相信在将来这种情况在中国也会出现。由于时间的关系，我不知道中国还是一些高速度进行增长到底对不对？我个人也有一些疑问，跟其它许多经济学家一样。作为一个国家来说，国家经济增长率一直很高，而且在增长方面，在经济增长方面做得有一点过份。现在这种高速经济增长带来什么，有一天它可能带来的后果并不是我们所预期的，但是目前来讲它所带来的后果就会有更多的工厂、有更多的生产。我不知道，将来这样的趋势将把中国带向何处，我想现在正确地或者以一种冷静的态度看待中国这种高速经济增长，这样才能够给中国的目前经济增长提供更加有用或者有效的建议。
Nabel economics laureate James Maurice speech
Abstract: the 2005 China economic summit as the eighth Kebohui special activities, the theme of " 2005 China year of reform: financial opening, corporate governance and sustainable development", the various forums from macroscopical and microcosmic two angle of 2005 Chinese economic focus issues are a fascinating discussion. The following is Nabel Laureate in economics James Maurice speech:
This morning I can speak, but is the economic growth problem. I don't know what I have to say something, I want to talk about the past and the future of some relationships, especially for future economic development. I don't know the development of economic growth rate will continue to carry on is a good topic. Then the economic growth rate continues to hold many barriers, one in economic terms the high deposit rate. There are a lot of problems, for example in the export and import of assets assets, assets trade can achieve a balance, for China 's economic development, is also very important.
For asset management, for economy development is very important. So for the economic development of a country is very important.
Why do some people think now seems to be the problem is not a problem, in the future may become hinder China's development problems? Can say, now with twenty years ago compared to China, China 's savings rate is quite high. Possible on the one hand is because people think, take out the money spending is not a good choice, but rather put the money in the bank for the insurance. However, from the current point of view, the people that this idea is consistent with their own logic. If there is a day when people feel no need to save money, the consumption structure will be a big change or is shifted 180 degrees, so, I think people in the consumption concept and whether the saving idea about their future prediction for their future judgment, if not sure, they may choose to save money, the future is very stable, they will choose to consume. However, individual this behavior for the country's capital increase and capital development has the profound significance.
The economy of China, we know that China has a lot of bad debt or bad debt or bad assets, the China Banking Regulatory Commission also has many loopholes. Perhaps these bad reasons there are some intentionally do not have the money, not to bad debt repayment caused the phenomenon. So many state-owned enterprises, as a result of policy protection, not to be able to in the economic development, playing a role, they cause a trouble maker. So in the long run, China 's state-owned enterprises appear to be in the enterprise profit profit above performance is very poor, it is the leading cause of China has a bad and doubtful debts or the main reason of bad assets. We can see, many of the state-owned enterprises, there are bad assets, for them, they are not willing to solve the question of non-performing assets, that is to say not very positive attitude. What is the result? Maybe they will be equity will be sold, disintegration. So far, this problem may seem not very important, but I believe that this problem will become more and more serious.
Talking about these things I can think of Korea, Korean society reception rate is relatively low, I believe in the future of this situation may arise in china. Because of the time, I do not know Chinese or some high speed growth exactly right? I also have some questions, and many other economists. As a nation, national economic growth rate has been very high, but in terms of growth, in the economic growth have a little too much. Now the high-speed economic growth brings about, one day it may result is not what we expected, but at present its consequences will be more factories, more production. I don't know, so in the future trend will bring China : where to, I think now correctly or in a calm attitude to China this high-speed economic growth, so as to give China 's current economic growth to provide more useful or effective suggestions.
(责任编辑：演讲网 yanjiangcn)
