许小年经典财经演讲：经济学与市场的逻辑
文章摘要：世界在发展，经济在发展，经济学的研究从来没有停息过，这是与人类生存息息相关的，各国著名经济学家都曾对经济学做到深度剖析。以下是著名经济学家许小年的经典财经演讲。回到经济学上来，我们要研究为什么会出现这个，这就是亚当斯密所研究的，为什么进入市场经济之后，财富的积累会有一种加速的增长方式，而不是像以前缓慢的自然增长？
经济学研究什么？我们现在讨论的经济政策是不是有那么重要，我想用一下维迎刚才在这里给大家展示过的一条曲线，这条曲线非常说明问题。
我没有看到过GDP的曲线，但是我看到过全球人口，芝加哥沃格教授做的，都是一个意思，这条曲线告诉我们，在我们所知的人类历史相当长一段时间里，我们的财富创造和全球人口长期停滞不前，刚才维迎讲了，99%的时间，财富的创造、人的生活水平，全球人口长期停滞不前，它发展的轨迹基本是一条很平坦的斜线，斜率很小。
但从16、17世纪开始，转折点出现在这样一段时间，晚一点的话是17世纪，第二次农业革命，到了18、19世纪时，我们都知道这是工业革命。
你大致可以把人类历史分成两个阶段：一个阶段就是财富的创造长期停滞不前，生活水平和财富积累、全球人口长期停滞不前，要是从猿人的头盖骨开始算起，这样的历史有几百万年时间，如果是有文字记载的人类文明史，从埃及计算起，大概是7000多年，在漫长的7000多年时间中，财富的增长沿着这样一条曲线上去。
到了17、18世纪之后，这是人类文明史的第二个阶段，财富飞速增长，它的运行轨迹和第一个阶段完全不一样，如果你把第一个阶段看成略微上斜的一条线性，在第二个阶段，人类文明的发展、知识的积累、财富的创造是指数的上升。
经济学研究什么？我们在课堂上学的经济学大部分是凯恩斯主义经济学，叫主流经济学，教科书经济学。凯恩斯主义经济学研究的是什么？它研究的不是为什么人类在17、18世纪时出现了增长转折点，为什么在经历第二次农业革命和工业革命之后财富指数型上升的势头可以一直保持下去，为什么？
所以经济学中最重要的问题是什么？凯恩斯说，经济学中最重要的问题是它的稳定性。所谓稳定性是什么？我们给出了一条黑色的线是GDP的长期趋势线，围绕着长期趋势线，我们可以看到有时候经济超过了趋势线，有时候低于趋势线。凯恩斯经济学研究的是为什么沿着这条长期趋势线经济会出现波动，以及采取什么样的政策可以减少红色的波动，这是凯恩斯主义经济学研究的。
亚当斯密研究的是什么？奥地利学派研究的是什么？我把这两张图放在这里大家回答我。研究的是这条长期趋势线，研究的是财富的创造、财富的积累，为什么亚当斯密的第一本书叫《国富论》，一个国家的财富是怎么创造出来的？这是经济学最重要的问题。至于在财富创造过程中有一些年头财富创造的速度快，有一些年头财富创造的速度慢，这个问题重要不重要？有一定重要性，但它的重要性比起财富创造本身来说是第二位的。
所以我感觉到凯恩斯主义经济学把经济学的研究方向搞偏了，它研究的不是财富的创造。
现在我们需要回到亚当斯密的传统上去，研究财富是怎么创造出来的。为什么在17、18世纪时人类文明出现了一个质的飞跃，为什么17、18世纪以后经济增长、GDP增长呈现出指数上升，如何保持经济增长的势头，这是经济学研究的最重要的问题，而不是GDP短期围绕着这条趋势线上下波动的原因。
我有没有把这个讲清楚？这是经济学中的两大分支，红色的是凯恩斯主义，黑色的趋势线是亚当斯密的传统，奥地利学派关注的重点——财富是怎么创造出来的。
从这张图上我们可以向下衍生，经济学最重要的研究题目是财富长期的创造，经济长期的增长，回到这张图上来，为什么会在这200年间出现人类文明发展史上最重要的转折，在这200年间不仅生产方式发生了根本性变化，科学技术、人类对宇宙的认识、思想、文化也都在这200年发生了以前7000年间所无法比拟的变化，为什么会出现这样的转折点？
现在讲起这个转折点，讲的都是工业革命，实际上工业革命之前已经开始了，那是第二次农业革命。什么叫第二次农业革命，就是面向市场的农业，农业和市场的结合，农民不再是自给自足地进行农业生产，而是为他人进行农业生产，并经过贸易。第二次农业革命出现在西欧，紧接着就是工业革命，在这个转折出现的过程中，市场扮演了极为重要的角色，市场配置资源导致了这个转折的出现。
欧洲在中世纪的时候，它的经济都是自给自足的农庄经济，是封建式经济，我在这儿顺便说一句，我们把封建也给搞乱了，我们把很多概念全都搞乱了，我们经常说中国落后是因为我们有漫长的封建社会，全错，从秦始皇统一中国一直到清朝末代皇帝溥仪，中国根本就不是封建社会，中国的封建社会在东周、在春秋战国时期已经结束了，我们的教科书把我们自己的历史都给搞乱掉了，所以大家一定要读书，读什么人的书？我一直说，一是要读洋人的书，再就是要读古人的书。只有这两类书可以读，其它那些书……（掌声）
当然，维迎教授的除外（笑）。除了洋人、古人的书以外能读的不多，但不是没有，说不定哪天本人要推荐本人的第二本书，那既不是洋人的，也不是古人的。
回到经济学上来，我们要研究为什么会出现这个，这就是亚当斯密所研究的，为什么进入市场经济之后，财富的积累会有一种加速的增长方式，而不是像以前缓慢的自然增长？维迎教授刚才给的那张方框图非常说明问题，大家可以去读他的书，为什么市场会从根本上改变人类的生产和生活方式。
从这里引申出来，如果我们要研究长期问题，要研究长期的经济增长，必须要研究市场的作用，因为我们知道这个转折点的出现和市场经济范围的扩大直接相关。如果我们关注的是经济的短期波动，我们的研究重点是什么？是政府，因为根据凯恩斯的经济学，只有政府运用财政政策和货币政策才能够把波峰和波谷降低，才能够保持经济的稳定。
所以我认为我们在经济学研究的根儿上就搞错了，经济学研究的重点不是短期的政府政策，而是长期的经济增长，你要研究长期的经济增长，必须要研究市场，如果只关注短期经济波动，每天谈的就是财政政策、货币政策，财政政策、货币政策在我看来都是拆东墙补西墙，不创造任何财富，经济学要研究的是财富的创造。
货币政策创造财富吗？货币政策如果创造财富的话，我们每年工作干什么？我们没必要工作，央行印钞票，每人拿着一大摞子扛回家就是了，我干什么在这讲课？我有毛病？我为什么要在这里讲课，要创造价值，只有创造价值之后才能获得收入。你们为什么要工作？你们要创造价值，否则你们没有收入。
如果仅仅靠货币政策就能创造出财富，我们所有的人都不用工作了，从第一个猿人站起来走时他就应该想到这个最聪明的主意，我们为什么不印点儿钱呢？印了钱以后什么事儿都不用干了。货币政策、财政政策根本不能创造财富，如果我们把注意力全都集中在政府的宏观政策，货币政策和财政政策上，我们就是舍弃了根源去追求枝节，把整个关系搞颠倒了。
要是你研究市场，那就要读亚当斯密，就要读奥地利学派。要是你认为政府就可以创造价值，我们用财政政策、货币政策，当然了，现在到中国以后，我们创造性地发展了凯恩斯主义，宏观调控的内容无比丰富，有楼房限价、限购，还管制绿豆、大蒜价格，还有“约谈”，还有罚款。我就讲，如果绿豆、大蒜都是宏观调控的话，还有什么不是宏观调控？连芝麻绿豆都算宏观调控了，还有什么不是？
我们在凯恩斯主义的大旗下无限扩张，把过去计划经济那一套统统放到凯恩斯主义的大旗之下，来作为它的理论依据干预经济，实际上做的是计划体制下对经济的微观管制，这是我们30年改革开放的倒退，是非常明显的倒退。
再往下推，亚当斯密，奥地利学派研究市场，研究市场的什么东西？创新。刚才维迎教授也讲了，市场经济的效率不是我们在课堂上学的完全竞争，达到资源最优配置，有多少位是从北大来的？不少。学经济的是吗？你们在课堂上都讲了，这是必须讲的，叫做“完全竞争”，完全竞争下的资源配置是帕雷特最优的，考试都这么考学生，我也这么考学生，但我最近在反省，我教给学生的都是错的概念，学生在答题时答错的那部分实际都是对的，但我说他们错了，因为和教科书不一样。
市场经济的效率来自于什么？它并不来自于教科书讲的完全竞争，哈耶克说的非常清楚，完全竞争实际上是没有竞争，竞争是一个过程。必须要把竞争理解为一个过程，是信息汇集的过程，是企业家发现利润机会的过程，你必须这样去理解。
之所以在这条线上可以沿着指数型的财富增长，就是因为从工业革命以来人类创新的步伐从来没有中断过，福格尔教授画的这张图上标出了在这一路径上历次重大的技术创新：这里是蒸汽机，下次读书会时我可以把这张图带来；这里是铁路、这里是电力，再上面是内燃机，等等等等。
为什么我们可以使得财富创造保持一种指数型增长？就是因为自工业革命之后在市场经济中我们不断进行着创新，创新是市场经济效率的根源，不是静态的完全竞争，静态的完全竞争那是宇宙的末日，是死寂的最终状态，没有任何意义的。
就像凯恩斯告诉我们的一样，凯恩斯告诉我们，从长期来看，我们都会死掉。完全竞争，就给我们描述了死那一天的状况，你去研究那个状况有意义吗？你要研究生命的过程，经济学同样，你要研究创新的过程，竞争作为一种过程，而不是一种静止的状态。这是奥地利学派的核心思想。
创新的条件是什么？第一，要有私有制，没有私有制就没有创新，为什么？因为创新风险极高，如果没有创新成功所带来的收益，没有人愿意去创新，中国历史上有着很多发明，但发明和创新是两回事，这是奥地利学派的熊彼特作出的明确区分，什么叫发明？什么叫创新？发明就是技术的突破，创新是技术的大规模商业应用。
互联网是谁发明的？美国军方，这是一项发明，但互联网作为一项创新是谁做出来的？是众多的企业家，因为创新是新技术的大规模商业应用，它只能由企业家来完成，Google、亚马逊、百度、网易、新浪、腾讯等等，一定是由企业家创新的，你为了让企业家在市场中冒风险投入自己的资金进行创新，必须给他足够的激励回报，这个最强有力的激励机制就是私有制，我投入资金进行创新，承担这么大的风险，创新成功必须获得足够的回报，如果没有私有产权的保证，创新就缺乏激励。为了使创新不断进行，一定要保护私有产权，这是最重要的。
第二，创新需要信息。需要市场中的信息，在各个角落中的信息，所有的创新都不是伟大思想突然在一天内变成现实，都是渐进的过程，在市场上不断试挫，根据市场上得到的信息反馈，不断试挫，最后才能够得出像iPhone这样的创新，互联网这样的创新，各种新型互联网公司（的创新）。信息在哪里？信息在市场的各个角落，不在政府的办公室里，不是科技部、这个委那个委规划的“创新国家”，“创新发展五年计划”，我曾经讲过一句不太客气的话，“所有的规划全都是鬼话”，为什么？它根本就没有信息。甚至企业家在开始创新之前都不知道他的成功机会在什么地方，需要企业和市场不断互动，不断从市场那里得到反馈，不断试挫，不断采取各种各样的方法，你让任何一个企业家跟你讲这个故事，他都会告诉你，最终创新得到的结果和他刚开始想象的南辕北辙，完全是两回事，为什么？因为他自己也没有信息，只能够在市场中通过试挫获得这些信息。
所以我们一看到什么“规划”，就感觉完了，没希望。为什么？因为它根本没信息。为什么靠政府不能创新？因为政府官员即使创新成功也不能享受创新所带来的收益，所以创新的两个必要条件，私有制和信息就决定了你只能搞市场经济，不能靠政府，靠政府一点戏都没有。
我大概就补充这些，好象时间已经超了，谢谢大家！
Xu Xiaonian classic economics lecture: Economics and market logic
Abstract: the world in the development, economic development, the research of economics has never stopped, which is associated with human survival, other famous economists have done in-depth analysis of economics. The following is a famous economist Xu Xiaonian classic finance speech. Back to economics, we should study why there was this, this is the Adams Smith Institute, why, after entering market economy, the accumulation of wealth will have an accelerated growth, but not like before the slow natural growth?
Economics is the study of what? We now discuss economic policy is it right? There are so important, I want to use dimensional Ying just here to show you have a curve, the curve is very revealing.
I did not see the GDP curve, but I saw the global population, Chicago Worg Professor, are a means, this curve tell us, in our knowledge of human history for a long period of time, our wealth creation and the global population of long-term remain stagnant, just dimension Ying said, 99% of the time, the creation of wealth, people 's standard of living, the global population of long-term remain stagnant, it tracks the development of basic is a very flat slope, slope is very small.
But from 16, seventeenth Century, the turning point came in this period of time, a little late it is seventeenth Century, second agricultural revolution, to 18, in nineteenth Century, we know that it is the industrial revolution.
You can generally be human history is divided into two stages : a phase is wealth to create long-term remain stagnant, standard of living and the accumulation of wealth, the global population of long-term remain stagnant, if from ape-men skulls to date, such history has millions of years, if there is a written record of the history of human civilization, the computation from Egypt, is about 7000 years, after 7000 long years, the growth of wealth along such a curve.
By 17, after eighteenth Century, this is the history of human civilization in the second stage, the rapid growth of wealth, its running track and the first stage is completely different, if you put the first stage as on slightly inclined to a linear, in second stages, the development of human civilization, the accumulation of knowledge, wealth create index is rising.
Economics is the study of what? We learnt in class economics mostly Keynes economics, called the mainstream economics, textbook economics. Keynes economics is the study of what? It studies not why humans in eighteenth Century 17, appeared to grow turning point, why after second agricultural revolution and Industrial Revolution later wealth exponential upward momentum can be maintained, why?
So the economics in the most important question is what? Keynes says, economics is the most important question in its stability. The so-called stability is what? We give a black line is GDP long-term trend line, around the long-term trend line, we can see that sometimes the economy over a trend line, sometimes below the trend line. Keynes economics is the study of why a long-term trend line economic volatility, and to take what kind of policy can reduce the red wave, this is Keynes economics research.
Adams Smith is the study of what? Study of Austria school is what? I put these two pictures on here you answer me. Is the study of the long-term trend line, is the study of the creation of wealth, wealth accumulation, why Adams Smith 's first book called" the wealth of nations", the wealth of a nation is how creation? This is the most important problem in economics. As for the wealth creation process is several years wealth created by the fast speed, some years wealth created by the slow speed, this problem is important? Have some importance, but its importance to wealth creation itself is a second bit.
So I feel Keynes economics to the research direction of economics have missed, it studies not wealth creation.
Now we need to go back to Adams Smith 's traditional sound, study how wealth is created. In eighteenth Century 17, why human civilization there is a qualitative leap, why 17, eighteenth Century after economic growth, GDP growth exhibits an exponential rise, how to maintain the momentum of economic growth, which is the key issues in the economics study, rather than short-term GDP around this trend line fluctuation.
I have this clear? This is the big two in economics branch, red is the Keynes doctrine, black trend line is Adams Smith 's traditional, Austria school focus -- how wealth is created.
In this picture we can down derivative, economics is the most important research topic is to create wealth of long-term, long-term economic growth, return to this picture, why in the past 200 years the emergence of human civilization history the most important turning point, in this 200 years not only produces kind happened essential sex to change, science technology, human understanding of the universe, thought, culture are also in this occurred 200 years previously for 7000 years by the incomparable changes, why is there such a turning point?
Now about this turning point, the industrial revolution, in fact before the industrial revolution had begun, it was the second time the agricultural revolution. What is the agricultural revolution the second times, is the market oriented agriculture, agriculture and the combination of the market, the farmer is no longer provide for oneself of agricultural production, but for others to engage in agricultural production, and through trade. The second agricultural revolution in Western Europe, followed by the industrial revolution, the turning point occurred in the process of the market, play a very important role, the market allocation of resources lead to the turning of the emergence of.
Europe in medieval times, its economy is provide for oneself farm economy, is the feudal economy, I'm here incidentally, we put the feudal also give up, we put a lot of concept is all messed up, we often say China lags behind is because we have the long feudal society, all wrong, from Qin Shihuang the unification of China until the last Qing emperor Pu Yi, China is not the China feudal society, the feudal society in the Eastern Zhou Dynasty, during the Warring States period has ended, our textbook to our own history to throw away, so we have to read, read what the people of the book? I always say, is to read a book to foreigners, is to read the book. Only these two books to read, other books ... ... ( applause.)
Of course, with the exception of Victoria welcome professor ( laugh). In addition to foreigners, ancient books can read much, but not, maybe someday I will recommend my second book, it is not love, also not the ancients.
Back to economics, we should study why there was this, this is the Adams Smith Institute, why, after entering market economy, the accumulation of wealth will have an accelerated growth, but not like before the slow natural growth? Welcome to the dimension of professor was Zhang Fang diagram is the problem, we can read his book, why the market would fundamentally change human production and way of life.
From here came, if we want to study long-term problems, to study the long-term economic growth, must want to study the role of the market, because we know that this turning point appeared in market economy and the expansion of the scope of direct correlation. If we are concerned with the short-run economic fluctuations, the focus of our research is to what? Is the government, because according to Keynes's economics, only when the government uses fiscal policy and monetary policy to the crests and troughs lower, to maintain economic stability.
So I think we in economics research. It wrong, economics study focused instead on short-term government policy, but the long-term economic growth, you have to study the long-term economic growth, we must study the market, if only pay attention to short-term economic fluctuation, everyday talk of fiscal policy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, monetary policy in my opinion is rob Peter to pay Paul, do not create any wealth, economics is the study of the creation of wealth.
Monetary policy to create wealth? Monetary policy if create wealth, we work to do? We have no need to work, the central bank to print money, each holding a large stack carried home is, what I do in this lecture? There was something wrong with me? Why am I here carefully, to create value, only to create value to obtain income. Why do you want to work? You have to create value, otherwise you have no income.
If only rely on monetary policy can create wealth, we all don't work, from the first man to stand up when he should think of the most clever idea, why don't we print the money? Printed money after what things do. Monetary policy, fiscal policy can create wealth, if we are concentrated in the government macroscopical policy, monetary policy and finance policy, we are left to pursue a root, the relationship is upside down.
If you study the market, it will read the Adams Smith, will read the Austria school. If you think that the government can create value, we use fiscal policy, monetary policy, of course, are now in China, we creatively developed the Keynes doctrine, the content of macroscopical adjusting control is extremely rich, the buildings, the purchase price, but also control mung bean, garlic prices, and" interviews", still fine. I say, if the mung bean, garlic is macroscopical adjusting control of macroscopical adjusting control, what is not? Even the sesame mung bean is macroscopical adjusting control, what is not?
We in the Keynes doctrine under the banner of unlimited expansion, in the past planned economy that one entirely in the Keynes doctrine under the banner, as its theoretical basis for intervention in the economy, actually do is plan system of economic regulation, this is our 30 years of reform and opening up backwards, is very obvious regress.
Then pushed down, Adams Smith, Austria school to study the market, study the market what? Innovation. Just meet Professor dimension also spoke, the efficiency of market economy is not in our class complete competition, to achieve optimal allocation of resources, how many bits are from Beijing University? A lot. Economics is? You in the classroom talk, this is must speak, called "perfect competition, perfect competition market allocation of resources is the parrett optimal, exams are so test the students, so I test the students, but recently I reflect on, I taught students are wrong concepts, students in the answer the portion of the actual answer is right, but I say they were wrong, and the textbook is not the same as.
The efficiency of market economy from what? It does not come from a textbook about the complete competition, Hayek said very clearly, perfect competition is not competition, competition is a process. The competition must be understood as a process of information collection, is the process of finding profit opportunities, entrepreneurship process, you have to understand.
The reason on this line can be moved along the exponential growth in wealth, because from the industrial revolution of human innovation pace never stopped, Fogel Professor painted this picture. In the path of major technological innovation: here is the steam engine, the next reading when I can take it picture bring; here is a railway, here is the power, then it is an internal combustion engine, etc..
Why we can make the wealth created keeping an exponential growth? Because since the industrial revolution in the market economy of our continuous innovation, innovation is the market economy efficiency roots, not static complete competition, static complete competition that is the end of the universe, is a dead end state, not of any significance.
As Keynes tells us, Keynes tells us, in the long run, we are going to die. Complete competition, is described to us to die that day condition, you go to study the status of meaningful? You should study the process of life, economics also, you have to research the process of innovation, competition as a process, rather than a static state. This is the core idea of Austria school.
Innovation of what conditions? First, there must be no private ownership private ownership, there is no innovation, why? Because the innovation risk is very high, if not successful innovation brings profit, no one is willing to go to the innovation, Chinese history has a lot of invention, but the invention and innovation are two different things, this is the Austria school bear Pete made a clear distinction between, what invention? What is innovation? The invention is a technological breakthrough, innovation is the technique of large-scale commercial application.
Who invented the Internet? The United States Army, this is an invention, but the Internet as a creative who did come up? Many entrepreneurs, because innovation is a new technology of large-scale commercial applications, it can only be accomplished by entrepreneurs, Google, Amazon, Baidu, Netease, Sina, Tencent and so on, it is innovation of entrepreneur, you in order to let entrepreneurs in the market risk their own money for innovation, must give him enough incentive in return, the most powerful incentive mechanism is private ownership, I invested in innovation, take such a big risk, innovation must be sufficiently rewarded, if there is no private property rights guarantee, innovation incentive. In order to make innovation continuously, must protect private property rights, which is the most important.
Second, innovation needs information. Need of market information, in every corner of the information, all innovation is not a great idea suddenly in one day become a reality, is a gradual process, in the market and constantly tries to get information, according to market feedback, and constantly try, finally able to draw like iPhone innovation, Internet this innovation, a variety of new Internet company ( innovation ). Information on where to? The information in every corner of the market, not the government office, not the Ministry of science and technology, the Commission, the Commission Plan" innovation country"," five years innovation and development plan", I said not a word too polite words," all the planning is all nonsense", why? It has no information. Even at the beginning of innovation entrepreneur never knew his chances of success in any place, needs the enterprise and the market interaction, continue to get feedback from the market, and constantly try, adopt various methods, you make any entrepreneur with you this story, he will tell you the final result, innovation and he began to think otherwise, is completely different, why? Because he did not own information, only in the market through the test and get the information.
So we see what the" planning", it finished, no hope. Why? Because it had no information. Why not rely on government innovation? Because the government officials even innovation success can not enjoy the benefits brought by innovation, therefore the innovation of the two necessary conditions, private ownership and information on the decision you can make market economy, cannot rely on the government, rely on a government to point play No.
I am about to complement these, as if time has passed, thank you!
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